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Ilia Morozov
Center · BUF · NCAA

Ilia Morozov

Age
18
Height
6'3"
Weight
200 lb
Shoots
L
Drafted
2026, round 1, 20th overall
Born
RUS
2026-27
NCAA · Miami Univ. (Ohio)
Games
3
Goals
2
Assists
0
Points
2
Prospect score · 2026-27
High end

85th of 1,160 prospects in the NHLnew

5th in the BUF system · 2nd among its forwards

+0.9WAR a season if he sticks
Outlook
NHL odds51%Becomes a full-time NHL player — 200 games by 26
Impact odds31%Better than the typical NHL regular among forwards
Arrival2029-30The season his comps who made it typically became regulars
WAR a season if he sticks+0.1+0.9+1.6Low, middle and high outcomes among his comparables who became regulars

Of the 10 players most like him at the same point in their development, 7 became full-time NHL players.

Development

His scoring, converted to an NHL equivalent, against every player his age and position that season. Zero is the average player his age; the band is where his comparables were at each age.

-2-10+1151617Age2023-24, age 15, 49 GP: -0.05 vs. his age group (0.08 NHL-equivalent points per game)2024-25, age 16, 59 GP: -0.65 vs. his age group (0.07 NHL-equivalent points per game)2025-26, age 17, 36 GP: +0.11 vs. his age group (0.14 NHL-equivalent points per game)
HimMiddle half of his comps at that ageAverage player his age
Comparables

Past prospects at the same position and the same stage after their draft, matched on draft slot, age, size and league-adjusted production. What they became is already known. The outcome is judged at 26: 200 NHL games by then makes a regular.

#PlayerMatchNHL GP by 26Career NHL GPOutcomeWAR a season
1Kristian Vesalainen2017 · #24 · at 1867%7070Did not stick—
2Philippe Paradis2009 · #27 · at 1864%00Did not stick—
3Ryan Poehling2017 · #25 · at 1861%358363Regular+0.70
4Jason Dickinson2013 · #29 · at 1860%283569Regular+0.51
5Brock Nelson2010 · #30 · at 1859%4801008Regular+1.11
6Joel Eriksson Ek2015 · #20 · at 1858%498622Regular+0.95
7Ludvig Rensfeldt2010 · #35 · at 1858%00Did not stick—
8Kasperi Kapanen2014 · #22 · at 1857%387575Regular+1.21
9Peter Holland2009 · #15 · at 1857%266266Regular+0.04
10Marcus Johansson2009 · #24 · at 1856%5301058Regular+1.60
Season by season
SeasonGPGAPtsPIM
2026-27NCAA · Miami Univ. (Ohio)32022
2025-26NCAA · Miami Univ. (Ohio)368122027
2024-25USHL · Tri-City Storm5911112220
2023-2415U AAA · Windy City Storm 15U AAA493341740

The prospect score is a percentile of his expected outcome among every prospect in the league: the chance he becomes a regular, times how good his comparables who did became against others at their position. A player who never sticks counts as zero, which is why a long shot with a high ceiling can rank below a safe bet. All Sabres prospects · How the rankings work