Trevor Connelly
Left wing · VGK · NHL

Trevor Connelly

Age
20
Height
6'1"
Weight
177 lb
Shoots
L
Drafted
2024, round 1, 19th overall
Born
USA
2026-27
NHL · Vegas Golden Knights
Games
9
Goals
3
Assists
2
Points
5
Prospect score · 2026-27
Blue chip

11th of 1,160 prospects in the NHLnew

1st in the VGK system · 1st among its forwards

+1.1WAR a season if he sticks
Outlook
NHL odds95%Becomes a full-time NHL player — 200 games by 26
Impact odds70%Better than the typical NHL regular among forwards
Arrival2027-28The season his comps who made it typically became regulars
WAR a season if he sticks−0.1+1.1+2.1Low, middle and high outcomes among his comparables who became regulars

Of the 10 players most like him at the same point in their development, 8 became full-time NHL players.

Development

His scoring, converted to an NHL equivalent, against every player his age and position that season. Zero is the average player his age; the band is where his comparables were at each age.

-10+1+216171819Age2022-23, age 16, 57 GP: +0.61 vs. his age group (0.14 NHL-equivalent points per game)2023-24, age 17, 52 GP: +1.51 vs. his age group (0.26 NHL-equivalent points per game)2024-25, age 18, 23 GP: -0.23 vs. his age group (0.15 NHL-equivalent points per game)2025-26, age 19, 46 GP: +1.74 vs. his age group (0.46 NHL-equivalent points per game)
HimMiddle half of his comps at that ageAverage player his age
Comparables

Past prospects at the same position and the same stage after their draft, matched on draft slot, age, size and league-adjusted production. What they became is already known. The outcome is judged at 26: 200 NHL games by then makes a regular.

#PlayerMatchNHL GP by 26Career NHL GPOutcomeWAR a season
1Jaden Schwartz2010 · #14 · at 2036%449868Regular+1.64
2Martin Necas2017 · #12 · at 2033%519526Regular+2.10
3Brock Boeser2015 · #23 · at 2031%479638Regular+1.14
4Jeremy Morin2009 · #45 · at 2031%8282Did not stick—
5Nikita Filatov2008 · #6 · at 2031%5353Did not stick—
6Kyle Palmieri2009 · #26 · at 2029%422932Regular+1.63
7Colin White2015 · #21 · at 2029%320323Regular+0.31
8Alexandre Texier2017 · #45 · at 2029%283290Regular+0.34
9Jacob Josefson2009 · #20 · at 2028%315315Regular−0.15
10Teuvo Teravainen2012 · #18 · at 2028%449833Regular+1.13
Season by season
SeasonGPGAPtsPIM
2026-27NHL · Vegas Golden Knights93250
2025-26AHL · Henderson Silver Knights4614354918
2024-25WJC-20 · USA U2071340
2024-25NCAA · Providence College23491329
2024-25AHL · Henderson Silver Knights61346
2023-24WJC-18 · USA U18745931
2023-24WJAC-19 · USA U19665116
2023-24USHL · Tri-City Storm5231477888
2023-24USA-S17 · Pacific District65493
2023-24Hlinka Gretzky Cup · USA U18555104
2022-23USHL · Tri-City Storm5724234754
2021-22NEPACK 16U · Long Island Gulls 16U AAA955106
2020-21AYHL 14U · North Jersey Avalanche 14U AAA11122
2020-2114U AAA · Anaheim Jr. Ice Dogs 14U AAA2020244455
2019-2014U AA · San Diego Saints 14U AA 1678750137100
2018-19QC Int PW · Anaheim Jr. Ducks23030
2017-18WSI U12 · Pro Hockey Selects U12867130
2015-16Brick Invitational · Western Selects64376

The prospect score is a percentile of his expected outcome among every prospect in the league: the chance he becomes a regular, times how good his comparables who did became against others at their position. A player who never sticks counts as zero, which is why a long shot with a high ceiling can rank below a safe bet. All Sabres prospects · How the rankings work