WARpath BuffaloWARpath BuffaloWARpath BuffaloWARpath Buffalo
Patrick Geary
Defense · BUF · NCAA

Patrick Geary

Age
22
Height
6'1"
Weight
189 lb
Shoots
L
Drafted
2024, round 6, 172nd overall
Born
USA
2026-27
NCAA · Michigan State Univ.
Games
2
Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Prospect score · 2026-27
Long shot

877th of 1,160 prospects in the NHLnew

28th in the BUF system · 10th among its defensemen

+0.6WAR a season if he sticks
Outlook
NHL odds2%Becomes a full-time NHL player — 200 games by 26
Impact odds1%Better than the typical NHL regular among defensemen
Arrival—Too unlikely to stick for an arrival year to mean much
WAR a season if he sticks+0.0+0.6+1.4Low, middle and high outcomes among his comparables who became regulars

Of the 10 players most like him at the same point in their development, 0 became full-time NHL players.

Development

His scoring, converted to an NHL equivalent, against every player his age and position that season. Zero is the average player his age; the band is where his comparables were at each age.

-2-10+115161718192021Age2019-20, age 15, 67 GP: -0.18 vs. his age group (0.04 NHL-equivalent points per game)2020-21, age 16, 23 GP: -0.38 vs. his age group (0.04 NHL-equivalent points per game)2021-22, age 17, 55 GP: -0.38 vs. his age group (0.05 NHL-equivalent points per game)2022-23, age 18, 60 GP: -0.84 vs. his age group (0.04 NHL-equivalent points per game)2023-24, age 19, 32 GP: -0.18 vs. his age group (0.10 NHL-equivalent points per game)2024-25, age 20, 37 GP: -0.87 vs. his age group (0.05 NHL-equivalent points per game)2025-26, age 21, 35 GP: -0.65 vs. his age group (0.08 NHL-equivalent points per game)
HimMiddle half of his comps at that ageAverage player his age
Comparables

Past prospects at the same position and the same stage after their draft, matched on draft slot, age, size and league-adjusted production. What they became is already known. The outcome is judged at 26: 200 NHL games by then makes a regular.

#PlayerMatchNHL GP by 26Career NHL GPOutcomeWAR a season
1Mike Williamson2013 · #175 · at 2257%00Did not stick—
2Mike Bergin2008 · #209 · at 2253%00Did not stick—
3Steven Johnson2014 · #120 · at 2252%00Did not stick—
4John Gilmour2013 · #198 · at 2247%3737Did not stick—
5William Reilly2017 · #217 · at 2244%00Did not stick—
6Mikhail Pashnin2009 · #200 · at 2242%00Did not stick—
7Cam Clarke2016 · #136 · at 2241%00Did not stick—
8Ryan Jones2016 · #121 · at 2240%00Did not stick—
9Ivan Chukarov2015 · #182 · at 2240%00Did not stick—
10Patrick Kudla2016 · #158 · at 2239%00Did not stick—
Season by season
SeasonGPGAPtsPIM
2026-27NCAA · Michigan State Univ.20000
2025-26NCAA · Michigan State Univ.35291170
2024-25NCAA · Michigan State Univ.3716743
2023-24NCAA · Michigan State Univ.32581330
2022-23USHL · Waterloo Black Hawks6031013118
2021-22USHL · Waterloo Black Hawks554131794
2020-21WYC U17 · Roc City Elite U1781898
2020-21NAHL · Northeast Generals20000
2020-2116U AAA · Buffalo Jr. Sabres 16U AAA23791642
2019-20USA-S15 · Team Red40112
2019-2015U AAA · Buffalo Jr. Sabres 15U AAA67113849122
2018-19WSI U15 · Draftday Selects U15 250222
2016-17QC Int PW · Buffalo Jr. Sabres22020

The prospect score is a percentile of his expected outcome among every prospect in the league: the chance he becomes a regular, times how good his comparables who did became against others at their position. A player who never sticks counts as zero, which is why a long shot with a high ceiling can rank below a safe bet. All Sabres prospects · How the rankings work