WARpath BuffaloWARpath BuffaloWARpath BuffaloWARpath Buffalo
Melvin Novotny
Left wing · BUF · NCAA

Melvin Novotny

Age
19
Height
6'2"
Weight
185 lb
Shoots
L
Drafted
2025, round 7, 195th overall
Born
SWE
2026-27
NCAA · Univ. of Massachusetts
Games
4
Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Prospect score · 2026-27
Depth

530th of 1,160 prospects in the NHLnew

20th in the BUF system · 8th among its forwards

+0.6WAR a season if he sticks
Outlook
NHL odds10%Becomes a full-time NHL player — 200 games by 26
Impact odds2%Better than the typical NHL regular among forwards
Arrival—Too unlikely to stick for an arrival year to mean much
WAR a season if he sticks−0.0+0.6+2.3Low, middle and high outcomes among his comparables who became regulars

Of the 10 players most like him at the same point in their development, 4 became full-time NHL players.

Development

His scoring, converted to an NHL equivalent, against every player his age and position that season. Zero is the average player his age; the band is where his comparables were at each age.

-10+115161718Age2022-23, age 15, 32 GP: -0.29 vs. his age group (0.07 NHL-equivalent points per game)2023-24, age 16, 42 GP: -0.50 vs. his age group (0.07 NHL-equivalent points per game)2024-25, age 17, 41 GP: -0.44 vs. his age group (0.10 NHL-equivalent points per game)2025-26, age 18, 48 GP: +0.33 vs. his age group (0.21 NHL-equivalent points per game)
HimMiddle half of his comps at that ageAverage player his age
Comparables

Past prospects at the same position and the same stage after their draft, matched on draft slot, age, size and league-adjusted production. What they became is already known. The outcome is judged at 26: 200 NHL games by then makes a regular.

#PlayerMatchNHL GP by 26Career NHL GPOutcomeWAR a season
1Brian Pinho2013 · #174 · at 1970%22Did not stick—
2Greg Burke2008 · #174 · at 1967%00Did not stick—
3Jesper Fast2010 · #157 · at 1959%353703Regular+0.58
4Adam Gaudette2015 · #149 · at 1958%220367Regular+0.02
5Oskar Lindblom2014 · #138 · at 1958%336337Regular+0.84
6David Wohlberg2008 · #172 · at 1957%00Did not stick—
7Brandon Hagel2016 · #159 · at 1956%375453Regular+2.34
8Alex Broadhurst2011 · #199 · at 1954%22Did not stick—
9Coda Gordon2012 · #165 · at 1954%00Did not stick—
10Fabrice Herzog2013 · #142 · at 1954%00Did not stick—
Season by season
SeasonGPGAPtsPIM
2026-27NCAA · Univ. of Massachusetts40000
2025-26USHL · Muskegon Lumberjacks4822355726
2024-25WJC-18 · Sweden U1870222
2024-25WJAC-19 · Sweden U1852358
2024-25J20 Nationell · Leksands IF J204112263837
2024-25J18 Region · Leksands IF J1843690
2024-25J18 Nationell · Leksands IF J1820220
2024-25Hlinka Gretzky Cup · Sweden U1842132
2023-24WHC-17 · Sweden U1770000
2023-24J20 Nationell · Leksands IF J201146100
2023-24J18 Region · Leksands IF J18191121324
2023-24J18 Nationell · Leksands IF J1812812206
2022-23U16 SM · IFK Täby HC U16756114
2022-23U16 Div.1 · IFK Täby HC U16811132410
2022-23TV-Pucken · Stockholm Nord867136
2022-23J18 Region · IFK Täby HC U1817720278
2022-23J18 Nationell · IFK Täby HC U181512132512
2021-22U16 SM · IFK Täby HC U1680220
2021-22U16 Div.1 · IFK Täby HC U16211111220
2018-19WSI U12 · Sweden Selects U1273360

The prospect score is a percentile of his expected outcome among every prospect in the league: the chance he becomes a regular, times how good his comparables who did became against others at their position. A player who never sticks counts as zero, which is why a long shot with a high ceiling can rank below a safe bet. All Sabres prospects · How the rankings work