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Luca Cagnoni
Defense · SJS · NHL

Luca Cagnoni

Age
21
Height
5'9"
Weight
180 lb
Shoots
L
Drafted
2023, round 4, 123rd overall
Born
CAN
2026-27
NHL · San Jose Sharks
Games
7
Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Prospect score · 2026-27
High end

53rd of 1,160 prospects in the NHLnew

4th in the SJS system · 3rd among its defensemen

+0.6WAR a season if he sticks
Outlook
NHL odds65%Becomes a full-time NHL player — 200 games by 26
Impact odds34%Better than the typical NHL regular among defensemen
Arrival2027-28The season his comps who made it typically became regulars
WAR a season if he sticks+0.1+0.6+1.2Low, middle and high outcomes among his comparables who became regulars

Of the 10 players most like him at the same point in their development, 8 became full-time NHL players.

Development

His scoring, converted to an NHL equivalent, against every player his age and position that season. Zero is the average player his age; the band is where his comparables were at each age.

-10+1+2+3151617181920Age2020-21, age 15, 10 GP: +0.35 vs. his age group (0.05 NHL-equivalent points per game)2021-22, age 16, 63 GP: +1.10 vs. his age group (0.10 NHL-equivalent points per game)2022-23, age 17, 67 GP: +1.80 vs. his age group (0.17 NHL-equivalent points per game)2023-24, age 18, 65 GP: +2.09 vs. his age group (0.25 NHL-equivalent points per game)2024-25, age 19, 64 GP: +2.58 vs. his age group (0.35 NHL-equivalent points per game)2025-26, age 20, 67 GP: +1.22 vs. his age group (0.28 NHL-equivalent points per game)
HimMiddle half of his comps at that ageAverage player his age
Comparables

Past prospects at the same position and the same stage after their draft, matched on draft slot, age, size and league-adjusted production. What they became is already known. The outcome is judged at 26: 200 NHL games by then makes a regular.

#PlayerMatchNHL GP by 26Career NHL GPOutcomeWAR a season
1Tyson Barrie2009 · #64 · at 2134%406822Regular+1.19
2Connor Carrick2012 · #137 · at 2134%241242Regular+0.11
3Josh Mahura2016 · #85 · at 2134%255283Regular+0.27
4Sami Vatanen2009 · #106 · at 2132%337473Regular+0.73
5Travis Hamonic2008 · #53 · at 2131%444926Regular+0.31
6Alexandre Carrier2015 · #115 · at 2130%217376Regular+0.21
7Adam Fox2016 · #66 · at 2130%431495Regular+2.02
8Philip Larsen2008 · #149 · at 2129%151151Did not stick—
9Ethan Bear2015 · #124 · at 2129%275275Regular+0.59
10Reilly Walsh2017 · #81 · at 2129%11Did not stick—
Season by season
SeasonGPGAPtsPIM
2026-27NHL · San Jose Sharks71122
2025-26NHL · San Jose Sharks30002
2025-26AHL · San Jose Barracuda678354322
2024-25NHL · San Jose Sharks60228
2024-25AHL · San Jose Barracuda6416365228
2023-24WHL · Portland Winterhawks6518729034
2022-23WHL · Portland Winterhawks6717476446
2021-22WHL · Portland Winterhawks639273612
2020-21WHL · Portland Winterhawks100332
2020-21CSSHL U18 · Burnaby Winter Club U18 Prep41234
2019-20CSSHL U18 · Burnaby Winter Club U18 Prep61452
2019-20CSSHL U16 · Burnaby Winter Club U16 Prep347222924
2019-20BCHL · Alberni Valley Bulldogs30110
2018-19CSSHL U16 · Burnaby Winter Club U16 Prep10002
2018-19CSSHL U15 · Burnaby Winter Club U15 Prep305172216
2016-17QC Int PW · Burnaby Winter Club Bruins40110
2015-16WSI U12 · MHC Vancouver Selects U1220000

The prospect score is a percentile of his expected outcome among every prospect in the league: the chance he becomes a regular, times how good his comparables who did became against others at their position. A player who never sticks counts as zero, which is why a long shot with a high ceiling can rank below a safe bet. All Sabres prospects · How the rankings work