WARpath BuffaloWARpath BuffaloWARpath BuffaloWARpath Buffalo
Logan Hensler
Defense · OTT · NCAA

Logan Hensler

Age
19
Height
6'2"
Weight
192 lb
Shoots
R
Drafted
2025, round 1, 23rd overall
Born
USA
2026-27
NCAA · Univ. of Wisconsin
Games
4
Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Prospect score · 2026-27
High end

82nd of 1,160 prospects in the NHLnew

2nd in the OTT system · 2nd among its defensemen

+0.6WAR a season if he sticks
Outlook
NHL odds50%Becomes a full-time NHL player — 200 games by 26
Impact odds29%Better than the typical NHL regular among defensemen
Arrival2028-29The season his comps who made it typically became regulars
WAR a season if he sticks−0.0+0.6+1.3Low, middle and high outcomes among his comparables who became regulars

Of the 10 players most like him at the same point in their development, 7 became full-time NHL players.

Development

His scoring, converted to an NHL equivalent, against every player his age and position that season. Zero is the average player his age; the band is where his comparables were at each age.

-10+1+215161718Age2022-23, age 15, 98 GP: +1.35 vs. his age group (0.08 NHL-equivalent points per game)2023-24, age 16, 88 GP: +0.84 vs. his age group (0.09 NHL-equivalent points per game)2024-25, age 17, 32 GP: +0.42 vs. his age group (0.10 NHL-equivalent points per game)2025-26, age 18, 23 GP: +0.52 vs. his age group (0.14 NHL-equivalent points per game)
HimMiddle half of his comps at that ageAverage player his age
Comparables

Past prospects at the same position and the same stage after their draft, matched on draft slot, age, size and league-adjusted production. What they became is already known. The outcome is judged at 26: 200 NHL games by then makes a regular.

#PlayerMatchNHL GP by 26Career NHL GPOutcomeWAR a season
1Jake Gardiner2008 · #17 · at 1950%407645Regular+1.17
2Mike Matheson2012 · #23 · at 1950%343710Regular+0.64
3Jon Merrill2010 · #38 · at 1944%307682Regular+0.13
4Connor Murphy2011 · #20 · at 1943%444832Regular+0.49
5Erik Karlsson2008 · #15 · at 1943%5561166Regular+1.93
6Jake McCabe2012 · #44 · at 1943%353731Regular+0.49
7Cody Goloubef2008 · #37 · at 1940%129160Did not stick—
8Tim Erixon2009 · #23 · at 1940%9393Did not stick—
9Justin Schultz2008 · #43 · at 1939%344745Regular+0.67
10Gustav Lindstrom2017 · #38 · at 1938%174174Did not stick—
Season by season
SeasonGPGAPtsPIM
2026-27NCAA · Univ. of Wisconsin41230
2025-26NCAA · Univ. of Wisconsin23481220
2024-25WJC-20 · USA U2070118
2024-25NCAA · Univ. of Wisconsin322101227
2023-24WJC-18 · USA U1871560
2023-24USHL · USNTDP Juniors27313166
2023-24NTDP · U.S. National U18 Team614283226
2022-23WHC-17 · USA U1770552
2022-23USHL · USNTDP Juniors38515206
2022-23NTDP · U.S. National U17 Team605232812
2021-22USHS-MN · Hill-Murray School317172417
2021-22USA-S15 · Team Columbia40004
2021-22MNHP · B15 - District 832350
2020-21WSI U15 · Draftday Selects U15946100
2020-2114U AAA · Minnesota Blades 14U AAA1319100

The prospect score is a percentile of his expected outcome among every prospect in the league: the chance he becomes a regular, times how good his comparables who did became against others at their position. A player who never sticks counts as zero, which is why a long shot with a high ceiling can rank below a safe bet. All Sabres prospects · How the rankings work