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Jackson Smith
Defense · CBJ · NCAA

Jackson Smith

Age
19
Height
6'3"
Weight
195 lb
Shoots
L
Drafted
2025, round 1, 14th overall
Born
CAN
2026-27
NCAA · Penn State Univ.
Games
2
Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Prospect score · 2026-27
High end

34th of 1,160 prospects in the NHLnew

1st in the CBJ system · 1st among its defensemen

+0.6WAR a season if he sticks
Outlook
NHL odds80%Becomes a full-time NHL player — 200 games by 26
Impact odds37%Better than the typical NHL regular among defensemen
Arrival2029-30The season his comps who made it typically became regulars
WAR a season if he sticks+0.3+0.6+1.6Low, middle and high outcomes among his comparables who became regulars

Of the 10 players most like him at the same point in their development, 8 became full-time NHL players.

Development

His scoring, converted to an NHL equivalent, against every player his age and position that season. Zero is the average player his age; the band is where his comparables were at each age.

-10+1+215161718Age2022-23, age 15, 16 GP: -0.47 vs. his age group (0.03 NHL-equivalent points per game)2023-24, age 16, 62 GP: +0.63 vs. his age group (0.08 NHL-equivalent points per game)2024-25, age 17, 68 GP: +1.26 vs. his age group (0.14 NHL-equivalent points per game)2025-26, age 18, 35 GP: +1.32 vs. his age group (0.19 NHL-equivalent points per game)
HimMiddle half of his comps at that ageAverage player his age
Comparables

Past prospects at the same position and the same stage after their draft, matched on draft slot, age, size and league-adjusted production. What they became is already known. The outcome is judged at 26: 200 NHL games by then makes a regular.

#PlayerMatchNHL GP by 26Career NHL GPOutcomeWAR a season
1David Rundblad2009 · #17 · at 1952%113113Did not stick—
2Juuso Välimäki2017 · #16 · at 1949%271271Regular+0.37
3Timothy Liljegren2017 · #17 · at 1949%311318Regular+0.59
4Jacob Trouba2012 · #9 · at 1947%516913Regular+0.56
5Charlie McAvoy2016 · #14 · at 1946%504574Regular+1.50
6Oliver Ekman-Larsson2009 · #6 · at 1946%5761145Regular+1.58
7Jake Bean2016 · #13 · at 1945%261277Regular+0.25
8Dante Fabbro2016 · #17 · at 1944%377451Regular+0.53
9Calvin de Haan2009 · #12 · at 1943%304679Regular+0.41
10Brandon Gormley2010 · #13 · at 1942%5858Did not stick—
Season by season
SeasonGPGAPtsPIM
2026-27NCAA · Penn State Univ.20110
2025-26NCAA · Penn State Univ.3511152640
2024-25WJC-18 · Canada U1874154
2024-25WHL · Tri-City Americans6811435448
2024-25Prospects Challenge · Team CHL20000
2024-25Hlinka Gretzky Cup · Canada U1850334
2023-24WHL · Tri-City Americans628212941
2023-24WHC-17 · Canada Red U1770222
2022-23WHL · Tri-City Americans60220
2022-23CWG · Team Alberta50226
2022-23CSSHL U18 · Edge School U18 Prep1654928
2022-23Circle K Classic · Edge School U18 Prep62578
2021-22WSI U15 · DHI Octane Selects U1570000
2021-22CSSHL U16 · Edge School U16 Prep72138
2021-22CSSHL U15 · Edge School U15 Prep2915233852
2021-22Alberta Cup · Team Alberta Red506616
2020-21AEHL U15 · Calgary Royals U15 AAA51124
2018-19WSI U12 · Western Canada Selects U1280110

The prospect score is a percentile of his expected outcome among every prospect in the league: the chance he becomes a regular, times how good his comparables who did became against others at their position. A player who never sticks counts as zero, which is why a long shot with a high ceiling can rank below a safe bet. All Sabres prospects · How the rankings work