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Ilya Nabokov
Goaltender · COL · KHL

Ilya Nabokov

Age
23
Height
6'0"
Weight
179 lb
Catches
L
Drafted
2024, round 2, 38th overall
Born
RUS
2026-27
AHL · Colorado Eagles
Games
3
Save pct
.927
GAA
2.29
Prospect score · 2026-27
High end

57th of 1,160 prospects in the NHLnew

1st in the COL system · 1st among its goalies

+0.9WAR a season if he sticks
Outlook
NHL odds77%Becomes a full-time NHL player — 100 games by 27
Impact odds26%Better than the typical NHL regular among goalies
Arrival2028-29The season his comps who made it typically became regulars
WAR a season if he sticks+0.1+0.9+2.4Low, middle and high outcomes among his comparables who became regulars

Of the 10 players most like him at the same point in their development, 6 became full-time NHL players.

Development

His save percentage, adjusted for league, against every goalie his age that season. Zero is the average player his age; the band is where his comparables were at each age.

-2-10+1+2171819202122Age2020-21, age 17, 33 GP: -0.11 vs. his age group2021-22, age 18, 36 GP: +0.68 vs. his age group2022-23, age 19, 34 GP: +0.76 vs. his age group2023-24, age 20, 43 GP: +1.02 vs. his age group2024-25, age 21, 49 GP: +0.59 vs. his age group2025-26, age 22, 38 GP: -1.05 vs. his age group
HimMiddle half of his comps at that ageAverage player his age
Comparables

Past prospects at the same position and the same stage after their draft, matched on draft slot, age, size and league-adjusted production. What they became is already known. The outcome is judged at 27: 100 NHL games by then makes a regular.

#PlayerMatchNHL GP by 27Career NHL GPOutcomeWAR a season
1Filip Gustavsson2016 · #55 · at 2135%219219Regular+2.41
2Vitek Vanecek2014 · #39 · at 2334%163210Regular+0.91
3Oscar Dansk2012 · #31 · at 2334%66Did not stick—
4Felix Sandstrom2015 · #70 · at 2133%3030Did not stick—
5Mark Visentin2010 · #27 · at 2330%11Did not stick—
6Ilya Samsonov2015 · #22 · at 2230%200200Regular+0.91
7Calvin Pickard2010 · #49 · at 2229%107192Regular−0.17
8Joonas Korpisalo2012 · #62 · at 2129%182334Regular+0.74
9Alex Nedeljkovic2014 · #37 · at 2229%141221Regular+0.51
10Eric Comrie2013 · #59 · at 2228%47102Regular after 27—
Season by season
SeasonGPRecordSv%GAASO
2026-27AHL · Colorado Eagles32-1-0.9272.291
2025-26KHL · Metallurg Magnitogorsk3822-7-5.9012.741
2024-25KHL · Metallurg Magnitogorsk4923-17-6.9232.223
2023-24KHL · Metallurg Magnitogorsk4323-13-3.9302.153
2022-23MHL · Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk3418-9-7.9331.935
2022-23KHL · Metallurg Magnitogorsk10-0-01.0000.000
2021-22MHL · Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk3625-8-1.9322.065
2020-21MHL · Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk3318-10-2.9252.064
2019-20Russia U17 · Metallurg Magnitogorsk U17300-0-0.938—0
2019-20MHL · Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk20-0-0.9172.260
2018-19Russia U17 · Metallurg Magnitogorsk U1720-0-0.824—0
2018-19Russia U16 · Metallurg Magnitogorsk U16170-0-0.908—0

The prospect score is a percentile of his expected outcome among every prospect in the league: the chance he becomes a regular, times how good his comparables who did became against others at their position. A player who never sticks counts as zero, which is why a long shot with a high ceiling can rank below a safe bet. Goalie projections carry the widest error on the site — goaltending develops late, and there are few goalies to learn from. All Sabres prospects · How the rankings work