WARpath BuffaloWARpath BuffaloWARpath BuffaloWARpath Buffalo
Gavin McKenna
Left wing · TOR · NHL

Gavin McKenna

Age
18
Height
5'11"
Weight
164 lb
Shoots
L
Drafted
2026, round 1, 1st overall
Born
CAN
2026-27
NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs
Games
8
Goals
2
Assists
3
Points
5
Prospect score · 2026-27
Blue chip

1st of 1,160 prospects in the NHLnew

1st in the TOR system · 1st among its forwards

+1.7WAR a season if he sticks
Outlook
NHL odds>99%Becomes a full-time NHL player — 200 games by 26
Impact odds86%Better than the typical NHL regular among forwards
Arrival2026-27The season his comps who made it typically became regulars
WAR a season if he sticks+0.6+1.7+3.4Low, middle and high outcomes among his comparables who became regulars

Of the 10 players most like him at the same point in their development, 10 became full-time NHL players.

Development

His scoring, converted to an NHL equivalent, against every player his age and position that season. Zero is the average player his age; the band is where his comparables were at each age.

0+2+4+6151617Age2023-24, age 15, 61 GP: +4.27 vs. his age group (0.28 NHL-equivalent points per game)2024-25, age 16, 56 GP: +4.83 vs. his age group (0.41 NHL-equivalent points per game)2025-26, age 17, 35 GP: +2.81 vs. his age group (0.38 NHL-equivalent points per game)
HimMiddle half of his comps at that ageAverage player his age
Comparables

Past prospects at the same position and the same stage after their draft, matched on draft slot, age, size and league-adjusted production. What they became is already known. The outcome is judged at 26: 200 NHL games by then makes a regular.

#PlayerMatchNHL GP by 26Career NHL GPOutcomeWAR a season
1Connor McDavid2015 · #1 · at 1826%645801Regular+3.73
2Jack Eichel2015 · #2 · at 1823%539699Regular+1.62
3John Tavares2009 · #1 · at 1823%6691273Regular+1.65
4Taylor Hall2010 · #1 · at 1819%562997Regular+1.27
5Steven Stamkos2008 · #1 · at 1819%5861253Regular+2.58
6Nail Yakupov2012 · #1 · at 1819%350350Regular+0.45
7Aleksander Barkov2013 · #2 · at 1819%596806Regular+2.43
8Auston Matthews2016 · #1 · at 1818%629697Regular+3.44
9Jonathan Drouin2013 · #3 · at 1817%427671Regular+0.60
10Sam Reinhart2014 · #2 · at 1817%614847Regular+1.82
Season by season
SeasonGPGAPtsPIM
2026-27NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs82354
2025-26WJC-20 · Canada U2074101414
2025-26NCAA · Penn State Univ.3515365136
2025-26International-Jr · Canada U2010220
2024-25WHL · Medicine Hat Tigers56418812919
2023-24WHL · Medicine Hat Tigers6134639721
2022-23WHL · Medicine Hat Tigers16414180
2021-22WSI U15 · Pro Hockey Selects U1591012220
2021-22CSSHL U18 · RINK HA Kelowna U18 Prep3523426518
2019-20BC Zone U15 · Yukon Zone U15 AA2022173916
2018-19WSI U12 · Pro Hockey Hutson Selects U12857120

The prospect score is a percentile of his expected outcome among every prospect in the league: the chance he becomes a regular, times how good his comparables who did became against others at their position. A player who never sticks counts as zero, which is why a long shot with a high ceiling can rank below a safe bet. All Sabres prospects · How the rankings work