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Carson Carels
Defense · CGY · NCAA

Carson Carels

Age
18
Height
6'2"
Weight
198 lb
Shoots
L
Drafted
2026, round 1, 6th overall
Born
CAN
2026-27
NCAA · Univ. of North Dakota
Games
2
Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Prospect score · 2026-27
Blue chip

20th of 1,160 prospects in the NHLnew

1st in the CGY system · 1st among its defensemen

+0.6WAR a season if he sticks
Outlook
NHL odds94%Becomes a full-time NHL player — 200 games by 26
Impact odds49%Better than the typical NHL regular among defensemen
Arrival2027-28The season his comps who made it typically became regulars
WAR a season if he sticks+0.2+0.6+1.4Low, middle and high outcomes among his comparables who became regulars

Of the 10 players most like him at the same point in their development, 9 became full-time NHL players.

Development

His scoring, converted to an NHL equivalent, against every player his age and position that season. Zero is the average player his age; the band is where his comparables were at each age.

-10+1+2+3+41617Age2024-25, age 16, 60 GP: +1.15 vs. his age group (0.10 NHL-equivalent points per game)2025-26, age 17, 58 GP: +2.82 vs. his age group (0.22 NHL-equivalent points per game)
HimMiddle half of his comps at that ageAverage player his age
Comparables

Past prospects at the same position and the same stage after their draft, matched on draft slot, age, size and league-adjusted production. What they became is already known. The outcome is judged at 26: 200 NHL games by then makes a regular.

#PlayerMatchNHL GP by 26Career NHL GPOutcomeWAR a season
1Adam Larsson2011 · #4 · at 1857%5471020Regular+0.18
2Alex Pietrangelo2008 · #4 · at 1843%5391087Regular+1.44
3Jake Bean2016 · #13 · at 1840%261277Regular+0.25
4Drew Doughty2008 · #2 · at 1838%6881284Regular+1.21
5Dmitry Kulikov2009 · #14 · at 1837%5691045Regular+0.31
6Ryan Murphy2011 · #12 · at 1837%175175Did not stick—
7Zach Werenski2015 · #8 · at 1836%486647Regular+1.10
8Noah Hanifin2015 · #5 · at 1836%678838Regular+0.95
9Michael Del Zotto2008 · #20 · at 1836%484736Regular+0.44
10Seth Jones2013 · #4 · at 1835%658920Regular+0.96
Season by season
SeasonGPGAPtsPIM
2026-27NCAA · Univ. of North Dakota20000
2025-26WJC-20 · Canada U2050112
2025-26WHL · Prince George Cougars5820537366
2025-26Prospects Challenge · Team CHL30220
2025-26Hlinka Gretzky Cup · Canada U1840112
2024-25WHL · Prince George Cougars606293542
2023-24WHL · Prince George Cougars70332
2022-23CSSHL U17 · Pilot Mound Academy U17 Prep20220
2022-23CSSHL U15 · Pilot Mound Academy U15 Prep2010223228
2021-22CSSHL U15 · Pilot Mound Academy U15 Prep262171918

The prospect score is a percentile of his expected outcome among every prospect in the league: the chance he becomes a regular, times how good his comparables who did became against others at their position. A player who never sticks counts as zero, which is why a long shot with a high ceiling can rank below a safe bet. All Sabres prospects · How the rankings work